Two of the largest stock market events of 2026 are, at heart, about artificial intelligence. SpaceX, which took over Elon Musk's AI company xAI in February, listed on Nasdaq in June in the biggest initial public offering on record. Anthropic, maker of the Claude models, is preparing to follow, and its draft prospectus, seen by Reuters, shows revenue multiplying alongside losses and spending commitments on the same scale.
What Anthropic's draft prospectus shows
Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 to the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 1 June, the company said in a statement published by Constellation Research. The draft has not been made public, so the figures below come from it as reported by Reuters on 28 September. Anthropic declined to comment, and the numbers can change before a public filing.
According to the draft seen by Reuters, revenue grew twelvefold in 2025 to nearly USD 4.6 billion. In the same year the company lost more than USD 8 billion on an operating basis, and total operating expenses reached USD 12.65 billion. The largest item was compute and infrastructure: USD 7.33 billion, three times the 2024 figure and more than half of all operating costs.
The reported net loss for 2025 is USD 42 billion, but Reuters says about USD 34 billion of it is an accounting charge: a higher estimated value of financing that could eventually turn into Anthropic shares, not cash spent running the business. At 31 December the company held USD 20.28 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short term investments.
This year looks different. Fortune's summary of the leaked draft puts second quarter revenue at USD 11.5 billion, up from USD 4.73 billion in the first quarter, so a single quarter brought in more than twice as much as all of 2025. The Financial Times reported, as cited by TechCrunch, that Anthropic is on track for a second straight quarter of operating profit on an adjusted basis.
The bill behind the growth
Anthropic has signed compute deals this year with Google, SpaceX and Nscale, among others, TechCrunch notes, and one of them ties the two listings together. SpaceX's own prospectus, made public on 20 May, disclosed that Anthropic will pay xAI USD 1.25 billion a month through May 2029 for the entire Colossus 1 data center near Memphis, Tennessee, TechCrunch reported. Either side can end the contract with 90 days' notice. "We expect to enter into additional similar services contracts," SpaceX wrote.
Revenue is concentrated too. Nearly a quarter of Anthropic's 2025 revenue came from two unnamed customers, and the draft warns that many of its largest clients are not locked into long term contracts and could cut or stop spending, Reuters reported.
Risk factors that name existential risk
Roughly a third of the document is devoted to risk warnings, according to the Financial Times. The filing describes behaviour Anthropic says its models have shown or could show, including attempts to "resist shutdown", to "conceal or manipulate information" and behaviour "resembling blackmail", TechCrunch wrote, citing Reuters. The FT reported that the risks listed include "existential risks to humanity", which TechCrunch said appeared to be a first in SEC filings. Chief executive Dario Amodei told the UN Security Council in September that AI was "the most important global security issue facing the world today".
SpaceX: an AI story tested on the public market
SpaceX priced 555,555,555 shares at USD 135 on 11 June, raising USD 75 billion, and began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX the next day, NPR reported. That beat the previous record, Saudi Aramco's USD 29.4 billion listing in 2019. Reuters put the valuation at USD 1.77 trillion.
The prospectus sold AI more than rockets. SpaceX claimed the "largest actionable total addressable market in human history", USD 28.5 trillion, of which USD 26.5 trillion was in AI, Yahoo Finance reported. Its AI capital spending rose from USD 463 million in 2023 to USD 12.7 billion in 2025. The company reported almost USD 18.7 billion in revenue and a USD 4.9 billion net loss for 2025, with losses tied partly to xAI, according to Straight Arrow News.
The market has changed its mind more than once. The shares rose 19 percent on the first day, to about USD 160, peaked at USD 211 the following week and fell below the USD 135 offer price about a month after the debut, according to coverage collected on Wikipedia. On 28 September they traded at around USD 147, Reuters said, adding that the performance "could give investors pause" about high growth valuations.
The ultimate question that this whole thing hinges on is: These companies aren't profitable yet, [so] how does this business model work?Ethan Feller, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, to NPR, 11 June 2026
What the two listings say about AI economics
Read side by side, the two filings show where the money in AI goes. Anthropic spent more on compute and infrastructure in 2025 (USD 7.33 billion) than it earned in revenue (about USD 4.6 billion), and it has committed to far larger sums ahead. SpaceX, through xAI, rents spare data center capacity to a direct competitor and calls it a "dual monetization strategy". One company's largest cost is part of the other's growth story, and neither side is locked in for long.
The next test is timing. Anthropic's listing is likely to come after the November US midterm elections, Reuters reported, citing sources, and could value the company at more than USD 2 trillion. That would be more than double the USD 965 billion valuation of its May funding round, in which it raised USD 65 billion, according to a Reuters timeline.
Once listed, companies must publish quarterly and annual financial reports, scrutiny that private firms have not faced, NPR noted. "We still are very early in terms of innovation and technology development," Songyee Yoon, managing partner at Principal Venture Partners, told NPR in June. "There is a long way to go, which means it will be a very bumpy road."
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